BTC is falling

Asian stock markets and cryptocurrency markets fell collectively today, primarily due to market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates.

Recently, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo stated that if economic trends align with projections, they may raise rates.

Currently, markets are pricing in a 48% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, versus a 51% chance of no change.

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has surged to 1.80%, nearing historic highs.

Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates, enabling cheap capital to flow into Asia for arbitrage trading—borrowing low-cost funds to invest in higher-yielding assets.

Should Japan hike rates, borrowing costs would rise, undermining these arbitrage schemes. This could trigger capital flight and market panic.

However, Bitcoin's holding structure indicates relatively stable investor sentiment, with no signs of panic selling.

Is Fed Chair Powell Resigning?

Rumors surfaced online yesterday suggesting Powell would resign on December 1st. I believe this is false information, as the likelihood of Powell stepping down early is minimal.

This rumor originated from overseas KOLs on Twitter and has not been reported by mainstream U.S. media or the Fed's official website.

As a core position at the Fed, resignation isn't a simple walk-out—it requires formal procedures.

Even if Powell wished to resign, the Senate must confirm a new chair through nomination, review, and voting—a process taking at least 2-3 weeks.

His sudden departure appears highly improbable at present.

This rumor likely aims to generate buzz and pressure Powell into cutting rates ahead of the December policy meeting.

Trump is also exerting pressure, claiming he has already selected the next Fed chair and will announce the choice soon.

The original plan was to announce before Christmas on December 25th, but an announcement before the December 10th rate meeting cannot be ruled out.

The current frontrunner is Hassett, Trump's close economic advisor who fully supports aggressive rate cuts.

Next is Waller, who advocates moderate easing—rational, non-aggressive, receptive to market feedback, and focused on communication and logic.

Choosing Waller would reassure markets that the Fed won't act recklessly. It all depends on who Trump ultimately selects.

What to watch next?

December brings a flurry of macro events, heightening investor anxiety and market volatility. I'll manage positions carefully to preserve capital for potential dips.

On December 1st, the U.S. will formally end quantitative tightening, marking a pivotal turning point in this economic cycle. This signals the conclusion of the liquidity withdrawal era that began in 2022.

The market will shift from a zero-sum game to a zero-sum or even positive-sum game, which is a long-term positive for risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. The Fed will soon enter its blackout period, during which all officials will suspend public statements. Markets will rely solely on this week's three speeches and data releases to gauge whether December will bring rate cuts. On December 2, Powell will deliver remarks. Despite the Fed's quiet period, markets will scrutinize his every word and gesture. Investors seek clarity on his outlook for future monetary policy—whether he favors continued preemptive rate cuts or prefers to monitor inflation pressures first. For reference only. Does not constitute any investment advice!!